Even in our sleep, pain which cannot forget
falls drop by drop upon the heart,
until, in our own despair, against our will,
comes wisdom, through the awful grace of God. -- Aeschylus
Poli poli is a refrain you hear endlessly climbing the sublimely beautiful Mt. Kilimanjaro. It is Swahili for slowly slowly, though once you're above eighteen thousand feet, you no longer need to hear it. In the last cold dark hours before dawn, as your lungs achingly search for an ever thinning supply of oxygen, it takes all one's concentration to put one foot in front of the other. Poli poli is no longer friendly advice, it is your entire reality. Two years into our changed global economy, there's no better way to describe things than poli poli. Slowly slowly is coming the recognition that things are not going back to where they were. Poli poli will people realize that whether Keynsian solutions or Freidmanite, the economy is will be stagnant at best. Poli poli a new politics will evolve to meet the new situation. And poli poli will this new politics engage the necessary fundamental economic restructuring.
In response to the popping of the most massive global financial bubble in history, we've seen unprecedented massive monetary and fiscal responses. Yet, these responses have not in anyway dealt with, nor will they, the tremendous underlying imbalances that were both a cause and result of the financial bubble. It is becoming increasingly obvious, it will take ever greater amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus to just keep the economy stagnant, and worse, keep us indebted to the past. How long can this be continued? That is unclear. One thing for certain, the monetary madness has transferred much of the bubble into global currencies, and like all bubbles it will eventually pop. The continuing and increasing manipulation of global currencies values as a solution, only makes clear the bankruptcy of much of our economic thinking, over time only adding to the instability of the situation.
The whipping boy for currency manipulation as pseudo-solution is the Chinese Renminbi, allowing the Chinese to take over the Fed's position of moving global markets with byzantine proclamations. Most everyone believes the Renminbi is going to rise, but that is a very uncertain bet, and continued stagnation of US, Japan, and Europe could force the Chinese to fight fire with fire, by devaluing the Renminbi. After all, unified devaluation is what Depression era scholar Ben Bernanke concluded as a solution, and he's been trying the best he can to implement. But the real point isn't who devalues or who raises currency values, it's the growing problems of a massively unstable global currency environment. Remember, the wise men of the 1930s, who failed to find solutions manipulating their currencies, became the wiser men of the 40s, instituting Bretton Woods as way to insure currency stability.
The FT has a good piece reminding how currency manipulation has tremendous unforeseen and unintended consequences with a lesson from 1930s China:
The 1934 Silver Purchase Act, passed under relentless political pressure from an alliance of silver producers, banker-bashers and inflation proponents, obliged the US Treasury to buy up the metal and boost its price. The practice wreaked havoc on the Chinese currency, which was tied to silver – long treasured in the country, even though there was no indigenous supply. Chinese silver stocks were smuggled out of the country and sold abroad, reducing the money supply and triggering deflation, credit contraction and a slump.
It's hard to see how the Chinese raising the value of Renminbi today would create any different results, helping the Chinese join the West in stagnation. What happens after the wise men realize currency manipulation is no solution? They go to tariffs, and then just as predictably war. Here in the US, leading the charge for tariffs are two of Wall Street's and our mega-corporations' biggest lackeys, Chuck Schumer and Paul Krugman. Nevermind tariffs are completely against what they preached, advocated and acted upon over the last couple decades during the de-industrialization of America and their shilling for corporate globalization.
I'll propose two other solutions. First, I don't have much use for Harry Reid, but give to Mr. Reid in order to keep Chuck Schumer from being Senate Majority Leader, that, or vote the Reps to control of the Senate. Even better, people of New York show a little responsibility for the republic and vote Chuckie out.
Secondly, doesn't it just fill you with the uncontrollable war lust of the valkyries to hear the effete Mr. Krugman cry it is time to "get tough with the Chinese." I have a better solution Paul. I know the great mathematicians of economics find it inconvenient to figure in their equations the economic value of the American military, nonetheless, it is substantial. Let's offer the Chinese a deal. The US only gets, at most, 15% of our oil from the Persian Gulf, yet it has cost us trillions over the last couple decades to "secure" this supply. Let's tell the Chinese they need to take this burden of "securing the Gulf" off our hands, hell, I'd bet they'd even pay us a couple hundred billion a year to do so. Plus, we get to cut our military budget freeing up another several hundred billion a year. Such an economic deal, right?
Poli poli.