Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Shorting America

Ain't that a kick in the head.
-- Dean "Dino" Martin

The FT has an Op/Ed by Dino Kos about shorting(betting against) US Treasuries. Mr. Kos asks, "Should traders and investors short the US Treasury market?" He briefly lays out the pro-case, but then spends the rest of the article making the con-case, concluding the time's not yet right, at least as Dino states in "the medium term." And for Dino, the medium term is the "next several quarters." Webster defines several as, "more than two but fewer than many." So, lets say Dino's giving us three or four quarters, Phew, being able to rely on stable money for only three or four quarters ain't much of a way to run a railroad, or country for that matter, nonetheless.

So why does Dino, get to speculate on US creditworthiness in the FT? Well, he worked for the Fed, the Reserve Bank of New York no less. In fact, his resume shows he went to work for the Fed in 1985, that would be right before the Fed's salad days and the splendorous papal reign of Mr. Greenspan. Dino's bio shows a curios timing, he left the Fed in the summer of '07, right when things began to get interesting. When he left, Dino was the Executive Vice President of the Market Groups with "responsibility for all the trading activity of the Federal Reserve including repo, government securities, foreign exchange and foreign reserves management." Upon his hiring in '07, Morgan Stanley stated, “Dino’s extensive experience in this market, combined with his proven leadership abilities, will enable him to make a significant contribution to the growth of our business as we further develop our Central Bank and Sovereign Wealth Fund capabilities."

Now today, Dino opines on US creditworthiness and the dollar, one would certainly want to know what his thoughts on the matter were in 2007. Did he flee the Fed cause he was worried about the future workload? Remember, when Dino left the Fed their balance sheet was at $800 billion, a little over a year later it would be over two-trillion! Since Dino left, they've been some trading S-O-Bs down there at the Fed. Or was he just leaving in that grand American Wall Street tradition of cashing in on his years of public service? Whatever the case, his tenure at MS wasn't long and now he's an analysis at Portales Partners, which doesn't seem as heady as Managing Director and Head of Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds at Morgan Stanley.

I don't mean to be picking on Dino personally here, he's probably a swell guy, but we need to understand the background of the folks out there these days putting the dollar and other global currencies into play. How do you run a country in any long term capacity if you can't have stable money supply? We've been in Afghanistan and Iraq for almost ten years now, how do you run a war if you can't rely on stable money? Or better, how do you build energy or transportation infrastructure? How do you listen to a guy who was at the Fed when policies were predominately for the overwhelming benefit of quarterly Wall Street profits, undermining the long term sustainability of the American economy?

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